Southern Africa

Early warning systems (EWS) facilitate societies’ preparedness and effective response capabilities to climate risks. Climate risks embody hazards, exposure, and vulnerability associated with a particular geographical area. Building an effective EWS requires consideration of the factors above to help people with coping mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to propose an approach that can enhance EWSs and ensure an effective climate risk resilience development. The paper focuses on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and highlights the issues with EWS, identifying weaknesses and characteristics of EWS to help in climate risk adaptation strategies. The SADC region was chosen as the context because it is a climate variability and change hotspot with many vulnerable populations residing in rural communities. Trending themes on building climate risk resilience were uncovered through scientific mapping and network analysis of published articles from 2008 to 2022. This paper contributes to on-going research on building climate risks resilience through early warning systems to identify hidden trends and emerging technologies from articles in order to enhance the operationalization and design of EWS. This review provides insight into technological interventions for assessing climate risks to build preparedness and resilience. From the review analysis, it is determined that there exists a plethora of evidence to support the argument that involving communities in the co-designing of EWS would improve risk knowledge, anticipation, and preparedness. Additionally, Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies provide effective tools to address existing EWS’ weaknesses, such as lack of real-time data collection and automation. However, 4IR technology is still at a nascent stage in EWS applications in Africa. Furthermore, policy across societies, institutions, and technology industries ought to be coordinated and integrated to develop a strategy toward implementing climate resilient-based EWS to facilitate the operations of disaster risk managers. The Social, Institutional, and Technology model can potentially increase communities’ resilience; therefore, it is recommended to develop EWS.

The reliance on rainfed agriculture exposes southern Africa to low agricultural productivity and food and nutritional insecurity; yet, the region is endowed with vast irrigation potential. Extreme weather events including drought, floods, and heatwaves exacerbate the existing challenges, underscoring the need to improve agricultural water management as a climate change adaptation strategy. This mixed-methods review followed the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis, and Analysis (SALSA) framework to explore the irrigation opportunities and challenges in southern Africa by critically analysing the drivers and constraints of irrigation systems in southern Africa. The premise is to understand the reasons behind the abandonment of some of the areas equipped for irrigation. In cases where irrigation systems are present, the study assesses whether such technologies are effectively being used to generate the expected agricultural productivity gains, and what factors, in cases where that is not the case, constrain farmers from fully using the existing infrastructure. The review further discusses the enabling environment supporting irrigated agriculture and the role of gender in irrigation development. An assessment of the role of women in agriculture on the share of land equipped for irrigation to total cultivated land area, as well as on the proportion of the area equipped for irrigation versus the area that is actually irrigated is conducted. The review found a divergence between countries’ land areas equipped for irrigation and actually irrigated areas. Specific to irrigation expansion, the review rebuts the notion that increasing the irrigated area increases crop production and ensures food security. This may not always be true as irrigation development needs to consider the impacts on other closely linked water and energy sectors through transformative approaches like the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus and scenario planning. If well-planned and implemented, sustainable irrigated agriculture could be catalytic to transforming southern Africa’s food system to be inclusive, equitable, socially just, and resilient, benefiting people and the planet.

This study estimated maize grain biomass, and grain biomass as a proportion of the absolute maize plant biomass using UAV-derived multispectral data. Results showed that UAV-derived data could accurately predict yield with R2 ranging from 0.80 - 0.95, RMSE ranging from 0.03 - 0.94 kg/m2 and RRMSE ranging from 2.21% - 39.91% based on the spectral datasets combined. Results of this study further revealed that the VT-R1 (56-63 days after emergence) vegetative growth stage was the most optimal stage for the early prediction of maize grain yield (R2 = 0.85, RMSE = 0.1, RRMSE = 5.08%) and proportional yield (R2 = 0.92, RMSE = 0.06, RRMSE = 17.56%), with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (ENDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and the red edge band being the most optimal prediction variables. The grain yield models produced more accurate results in estimating maize yield when compared to the biomass and proportional yield models. The results demonstrate the value of UAV-derived data in predicting maize yield on smallholder farms – a previously challenging task with coarse spatial resolution satellite sensors.

The frequency of El Nio occurrences in southern Africa surpasses the norm, resulting in erratic weather patterns that significantly impact food security, particularly in Zimbabwe. The effects of these weather patterns posit that El Nio occurrences have contributed to the diminished maize yields. The objective is to give guidelines to policymakers, researchers, and agricultural stakeholders for taking proactive actions to address the immediate and lasting impacts of El Nio and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry. This brief paper provides prospective strategies for farmers to anticipate and counteract the El Nio-influenced dry season projected for 2023/24 and beyond. The coefficient of determination R2 between yield and ENSO was low; 11 of the 13 El Nio seasons had a negative detrended yield anomaly, indicating the strong association between El Nino’s effects and the reduced maize yields in Zimbabwe. The R2 between the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and rainfall (43%) and between rainfall and yield (39%) indirectly affects the association between ONI and yield. To safeguard farmers’ livelihoods and improve their preparedness for droughts in future agricultural seasons, this paper proposes a set of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making guidelines that the agriculture industry should follow. The importance of equipping farmers with weather and climate information and guidance on drought and heat stress was underscored, encompassing strategies such as planting resilient crop varieties, choosing resilient livestock, and implementing adequate fire safety measures.